“Fire! Aim! Ready?” Trump Bombs Markets, NK Threatens Actual Bombs
VIX surges 44% for a three day gain of 62%, closing at the highest levels since the election. While the market was overdue for a More...…
Five Consequences of Errors of Omission
Ah! well a-day! what evil looks Had I from old and young! Instead of the cross, the Albatross About my neck was hung. ~•~ – More...…
In Search of Volatility – 5 Reasons to Worry
Don’t underestimate the importance of low stock correlations fueling realized financial volatility. June’s performance should be a warning sign of things to come. Considering the More...…
Trump Turmoil Finally Takes Toll
After climbing the wall of worry over one crisis after another from the White House, the latest revelation about the Comey memo sent markets reeling More...…
Trump Effect Risk Scenarios Part 2: From Russia with Love
Modeling stress scenarios that take into account the geopolitical outcome of a new administration always involves some level of uncertainty. The continued public admiration between More...…
Trump Effect Risk Scenarios Part 1: The Challenge of Forecasting Trump Scenarios
Financial markets do not normally reward uncertainty. However, an optimistic view toward possible pro-growth policies fueled the market rally after the election, discounting the risk More...…
Financial Risk Survey Results
Below are the results of Red Swan’s observations. Please contact us to discuss any of these insights in more detail. Perception vs Reality Actual Sources More...…
Dealing with the Trump Effect on Model Risk
Scenario analysis based on the last administration could prove misleading moving forward The recent presidential race turned every political convention on its head. Things that More...…
Trumped Up Model Risk—a Black Swan or Red Swan Event?
With nearly every poll getting the election wrong, did we just witness a black swan event in the US Presidential election? It certainly was a More...…
Two-Sentence Stories About the Crippling Effects of Maintenance Expense
Nothing about risk stays the same. Markets change, models change, data changes, portfolios change and people change. All of these expose limitations to your risk More...…